Contract Title: Contract with Woods Hole for Analysis of Red Tide Cyst Sampling Results
Grantee: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Award Period: March 6, 2013-April 30, 2013
This project was an expansion of the work completed in September 2012 for the project “Regional Cyst Bed Mapping Collaboration.” The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) analyzed samples from the 2012 cyst survey and used the results to further refine the statistical model begun in the previous project in order to determine how future cyst sampling surveys can be done with fewer sampling stations and at less cost. Project end date was June 30, 2013.
This project included analysis of >100 surface sediment samples collected during an 11-day R/V Endeavor cruise (EN519) that ended November 3, 2012. Alexandrium cysts collected from undisturbed surface sediments were analyzed and enumerated, and those data were incorporated into a modeling effort to derive the 2013 seasonal outlook, which was forecasted as “moderate.” The data were also utilized in models to provide weekly short-term bloom “Nowcasts” for shellfish managers.
The 2012 data were integrated with historical cyst maps to further refine a statistical model for estimating regional cyst distribution. WHOI stated that the initial results are encouraging that future forecasts could be made using this statistical model combined with a reduced set of cyst observations. These conclusions are timely, because severe budget cuts to NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) programs may require a more limited cyst mapping survey effort in the coming years. To this end, WHOI would be directly utilizing the reduced patterns of stations and transects derived from this project.
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